October 14, 2026
Summer Street Advisors (SSA) hosted the latest session of its CRE Leaders Circle in New York on October 14. The closed, invitation-only gathering brought together owners, lenders and equity investors for a frank discussion of how rising rates and shifting fundamentals are changing commercial real estate.
The event came at a turning point for the market. The 10-year Treasury has risen from 3.90% in February to above 5%. At that level, many transactions that worked earlier in the year no longer do. Participants agreed that capital remains available, but the discussion centered on where it can be deployed with confidence.
Three themes stood out:
Demographics are a defining force. The U.S. population is aging, and by the early 2030s deaths are expected to outnumber births. More young adults are living at home, and renters now account for about 80% of new households. Participants viewed these long-term shifts as central to the outlook for multifamily and housing demand.
The market is in new territory. With the 10-year Treasury above 5%, participants agreed that waiting for rates to normalize is no longer a strategy. The task now is to underwrite the asset, not the rate cycle.
Returns are about income again. In past cycles, many investors counted on cap rate compression to drive returns. Today the focus has moved to current income and operational performance, with less reliance on property values rising.
Execution was the common thread. Lenders and equity providers are now underwriting the sponsor as closely as the asset. Sponsors with a track record, a deep understanding of their properties and a credible plan for managing risk are best positioned.
“Nobody in that room is waiting for rates to rescue their deals anymore,” said Jack Mullen, Founder and Managing Director of Summer Street Advisors. “But CRE is healthier than the headlines suggest. What’s different is that capital is following sponsors who know their assets and can execute, not just those who can find a deal.”
The CRE Leaders Circle is part of SSA’s ongoing effort to bring market participants together around the issues shaping commercial real estate.
About Summer Street Advisors, LLC
Summer Street Advisors LLC is a commercial real estate advisory services firm founded by Jack Mullen, an alumnus of GE Capital Real Estate.
SSA offers a full range of advisory services across Transaction Management, Capital Markets, and Asset Management, providing highly experienced strategic advisory services to sponsors/developers, financing institutions, debt and equity fund investment managers, insurance companies, pension funds, and family offices. SSA’s senior team has hands-on experience across all major U.S markets and asset classes for structured equity and debt investments, including distressed assets and CMBS securities.
About Jack Mullen of Summer Street Advisors:
As Founder & Managing Director of Summer Street Advisors, Jack Mullen leverages decades of experience in valuation, underwriting, and risk management to lead multi-million and multi-billion dollar CRE transactions.
Previously with GE Capital and large institutional banks, he has shaped investment strategies for some of the industry’s largest deals. A recognized leader, his insights are featured in GlobeSt.com and CREFC Finance World, and he is a sought-after speaker at industry conferences and top universities.
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