Observations from CREFC Annual Conference
June 15, 2017 — Q2 Pipeline of new issuance is strong, and up significantly from Q1. Industry adjusting to Risk Retention with outlook that large banking institutions with active CMBS programs will be the big winners and continue to dominate issuance. Outlook for 2017 issuance volume in line with 2016 with predictions ranging from $50bn to $75bn. Concerns about 2018 volume are on the rise with significant fall-off in loan maturities from 2017.
Foggy Economic Outlook in the Trump Era
May 2, 2017 — As we approach the milestone first 100 days of Donald Trump’s presidency, his impact on the U.S. economy and the commercial real estate market is still a question mark. Some analysts worry that disruptive policies could trigger a recession in light of the fragile global economy. Others look forward to an economic boom brought on by lower corporate taxes and a rollback of energy and financial regulations.
Unconventional Wisdom
February 26, 2017 — In any presidential election year, many businesses hold off making major decisions due to uncertainty. With the election of Donald Trump, that feeling of uncertainty hasn’t gone away. And maybe that’s a good thing, given the poor track record of people in the prediction business over the past few years.
Real Estate Investment: Optimism vs. Cautions
January 5, 2017 — A Wall Street Journal article in November titled ‘Trouble Brewing in Commercial Real Estate’ paints a bleak picture of the $11 trillion sector in 2017. As someone who works with debt and equity capital providers on structured finance transactions in good times and on workouts in not-so-good times, I would characterize the market in terms of opportunity more than danger—although both elements are present.
Reports of the Death of Suburban Office Are Greatly Exaggerated
November 15, 2016 — In recent years, I’ve talked to investors and advisors who suggested that suburban office markets might never recover from the recession, and that owners might consider adaptive reuse options for well-located buildings that would otherwise sit empty. Well, we can call off the deathwatch for now—suburban office is back on its feet.